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More than any other city on the East Coast, Boston is addicted to property taxes. Could the Hub be hitting a crippling tax-levy ceiling soon?
In 2012, collections on homes, buildings, and private infrastructure will feed more than 65 percent of Boston's $2.4 billion budget.

It's 2015. Foreclosures have left Boston's outer neighborhoods gutted, and homes virtually worthless. Downtown, property values have also dropped, triggering sharp declines in commercial activity. The budget has been gutted, and reductions in essential city services are noticeable. Teacher, fire, and police contracts that were negotiated in 2011 and 2012 continue to bleed resources, as baby-boomer pension costs increase at exceedingly higher rates than the city's available finances.

>> CHART: Beantown counters: Boston's addiction to property taxes <<

It's a doomsday scenario, sure. But it's one that becomes more and more likely as Boston's residential values continue to tumble, as they have since the 2008 housing-market meltdown. Experts have been saying for years that the economy will rebound, but so far they've been wrong. And there's more at stake here than real estate — the Hub's budget hinges on how much your home is worth.

More than any other major East Coast city, Boston relies on business and residential owners to pay for things like jakes and teachers. One critical observer says the budget is "like an animal that we have to keep feeding" with property-tax levies; in 2012, collections on homes, buildings, and private infrastructure will feed more than 65 percent of Boston's $2.4 billion budget.

That's feasible right now. But in the next five years, Boston could hit the ceiling for how much property tax it can extract under state law. In the uncertain interim, some say that prospect should raise concern on several fronts:

* Though Boston businesses still pay the lion's share of property taxes, city assessors, out of necessity, have gradually shifted more tax burden onto homeowners for nearly a decade. That affects everyone from downtown millionaires to low-income renters.

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