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It’s the Red Sox, stupid
You don’t need a fancy political-science degree to predict voter turnout in Boston city elections. All you need is a Red Sox postseason schedule (when applicable).

You don’t need a fancy political-science degree to predict voter turnout in Boston city elections. All you need is a Red Sox postseason schedule (when applicable).

Using this sophisticated algorithm, I can tell you with some assurance that about 26 percent of registered Boston voters will hit the polls on November 3.

Since 1993 — during the Menino era — that’s been the average turnout for City Council general elections (with and without mayoral contests) in years that the Red Sox made the playoffs. When the Sox fail to advance into October baseball, that number closes in on 40 percent. You might say that Bostonians prefer baseball to politics.

To reach this conclusion, the Phoenix simply gathered two sets of empirical evidence — baseball stats and raw City Hall election data for the past 15 years — and reported the resounding message that emerges from between the spreadsheet lines: the better off the Sox fare, the less people vote in Boston.

In 2007 — when the Sox went all the way — a pathetic 13.6 percent of registrants tallied in the nine-way councilor-at-large race. Compare that with roughly 25 percent in 1999 and 2003, years in which there were also no tandem mayoral contests, and in which the Sox lost in the American League Championship Series. The last such race during which the Sox only made it to the American League Division Series — in 1995 — a slightly more impressive 32 percent voted.

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